If polls heading into next week's Ontario election vote are any indication, Dalton McGuinty may well retain the premier's seat -- either with a majority or perhaps with a reduced minority Liberal-dominated legislature. Despite this prospect, Mr. McGuinty shouldn't be too quick to interpret either result as a resounding mandate to continue business as usual, especially on the health tax.

The Canadian Taxpayers Federation argued during this campaign that politicians who say one thing before an election yet do something completely different after being elected should not be rewarded by voters. Mr. McGuinty did that in spades when he imposed the health tax after having promised not to raise taxes.

What's important is that voters en masse are planning to reject Mr. McGuinty and his loathed health tax. It is uncommon for parties to agree on an issue. Yet, all three parties opposing the Liberals in this campaign have committed either to reducing it or eliminating the health tax altogether. Combined, these parties - the PCs, the NDP, and the Greens - are poised to garner around 60% of voter support. If polls are correct, a majority of voters are prepared to cast a ballot for change; a ballot against the health tax; a ballot in favour of honesty in politics.

These votes for change arise not only from when Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty fist broke his promise not to raise taxes, but also when he made matters worse by continuing to be untruthful about this broken promise. To explain his broken promise Mr. McGuinty says when he promised not to raise taxes he didn't know how large the deficit was. A check of the facts shows this defence to be a nose-stretcher of Pinocchio-like proportions and a majority of voters are preparing to remind him of it.

During the 2003 election McGuinty signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge promising not to raise taxes absent a referendum. For two months prior to making this promise, his own MPPs were stating that the deficit was $5 billion. At committee Liberal MPPs Monte Kwinter and Finance Critic Gerry Phillips argued in June 2003 and again in August 2003 that the deficit was $5 billion.

On September 22, 2003, only eleven days after McGuinty promised not to raise taxes, the Fraser Institute issued a fiscal report about Ontario declaring the deficit was actually $4.5 billion. An internet search today shows stories from CBC Ontario, Canada Newswire and the Hamilton Spectator that carried the story. McGuinty would have Ontarians believe he didn't know about the size of the deficit despite this report and his own party's MPPs. This simply can't be true.

On election day voters have the chance to hold Mr. McGuinty accountable for his broken promise on taxes. It appears a majority of them are prepared to do so. Only the Liberals are promising to keep the health tax. With 60% of Ontarians poised to vote against the tax let's hope Mr. McGuinty keeps this in mind if he is returned to office.

Ontario Election Campaign

  
• Being Liberal Means Promising No Tax Relief
    
• Click here to see an analysis of the four main parties' election tax policies.
    
• Liberal Threatens Violence Against Fibber the CTF Honesty Mascot
    
• Read Premier McGuinty's signed pledge not to raise taxes:  Low-Resolution image   High-Resolution image
    
• Mr. McGuinty signing the CTF pledge
    
• CTF Launches Fibber, the 'Honesty in Politics' Mascot
    
• CTF Launches "Honesty in Politics" Campaign
    
• Click here to view brief video clip of news conference launching the "Honesty in Politics" campaign. (2.26 min)